Daily Kos

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  •  20% reduction in oil imports? No chance (none / 0)

    I am SO glad you're doing this, and I completely agree that this is a critical issue -- both for our country, and for our Party.

    Having said that...

    The goal of a 20% reduction in imported oil strikes me as both impractical and politically un-smart.

    Our overall demand for oil is growing -- and while we can try to reduce the rate of increase, it's unlikely that we can halt growth in demand by 2020.

    Meanwhile, domestic production is decreasing -- and even if we drilled in ANWR, etc, we still couldn't replace even 20% of our current imports, let alone our imports required by 2020.

    What this does, though, is to play into the demands of the drillers.  

    The number one way to reduce the percentage of oil we import is to drill more in the US.  I don't think this is a good plank for us to stand on.

    what would joe rauh do?

    by nbutter on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:04:16 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I'd simply strike it (none / 0)

      with respect to your request for alternatives, in this case, i'd simply eliminate the line.

      I think that getting 20% of our energy from renewables covers the policy changes that would get us towards a reduction in demand for foreign oil.

      In reality, if we were gettting the SAME absolute level of oil imports in 2020 as today, it would be a big, big change -- it would mean that we were obtaining our growth from non-foreign sources (most likely renewable, with some nukes) -- and that would be huge!

      Now, if you need a third bullet, I would suggest making it a relative goal, not an absolute goal:

      "Reduce the proportion of our energy derived from foreign oil by 20%"

      Maybe this is more achievable?

      what would joe rauh do?

      by nbutter on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:09:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually... (none / 0)

        We could build all the nuclear plants you want, and it won't save a drop of oil.  We don't burn oil to make electricity (okay, there's a tiny percentage used mostly in back up generator and "campus" facilities, but you get what I'm saying).  

        If you want a reduction in oil, it has to be addressed directly.  All the nukes, solar panels, and windmills in the world won't help.

        •  I believe you are wrong to a degree (none / 0)

          They will indeed help but they are not the bigger issue which will need to be done to really reduce our dependence.

          The big issue is reducing or even nearly eliminating the need in transportation and heating.

          There is one way that the latter could at least see a huge improvement.

          That would be through a different version of the Hybrid vechicle.

          The change would be in creating Hybrids which used biodiesel instead of Gas or oil based auto fuel. Same thing could be done for home heating.

          Biodiesel can be made much cheaper to create by using the right raw materials instead of corn based raw material. Plus the more demand there is and the more that it is used the cheaper it becomes to create it.

          June 3rd 2008 America is at last started on the road to long awaited recovery

          by eaglecries on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 10:10:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, it CAN be done (none / 0)

      If you have the stomach for it.

      Bring back the 55MPH speed limit
      That would be an immediate 10-15% savings.

      Require that all companies with more than 100 employees have at least 15% telecommuters
      There's another 10%.

      You could do other things: high tarrif on truck shipments, subsidize E85 fuel, etc.

      Of course, I think what Jerome is calling for (and what I would want as well) is something a little less drastic: gradual improvements in fuel efficiency, public transportation, and conservation all adding up to a 20% drop over the next 15 years.

      •  55 MPH (none / 0)

        May or may not make the difference you think.

        Since Katrina, I've had my car set to show its real-time mileage.  It gets better mileage at 70MPH than it does at 55 MPH.  I can't even begin to guess how the physics for that works, but it's been consistently better at the 70 MPH from mountains to seacoast and back. And no, it's not an automatic, so it's not downshifting when it gets down to 55, or anything weird like that.

        By paying attention to the real-time mileage, I've increased the average mileage of my car from 25 MPG to 27.4 MPG - in a 1997 Volvo shaped like a brick.  Not bad.  It's not the bio-diesel hybrid I dream of, but by sticking with an existing car and improving my mileage, I'm probably doing more good than if I were to buy a newly manufactured hybrid.  I'm not sure where the energy-cost break-even would be for buying a new car (when you include all the energy used to manufacture and transport it) vs keeping my old car, but if I can keep messing around to improve the mileage, it may be a long way out.

        I do know, though, that I'm going to stick to that magical 70 MPH on the highway that seems to give the most distance per dollar as long as I have this car.  

        Of course, your mileage may vary... ;-)

        •  Why do you think that is accurate? (none / 0)

          If you are in the same gear, your statement is ludicrous.  So since it flies in the face of Newtonian physics, look for error in your measurement system.  Drag on any car is greatly increased since it is proportional to velocity squared.

          drag is proportional to velocity squared, and:

          55 x 55 = 3,025

          70 x 70 = 4,900

          So you claim "Better" fuel mileage with 62% more drag?  Unbelievable.

          Look to your driving habits, accelerator on and off, braking, the wind direction, temperature, etc. to explain the difference IF your on-board computer is working properly.

          Then if you really want to save gas, buy a Prius. My computer shows 61.1 mpg for the last 150 miles, and it checks out pretty closely when I record the gas at each fill up.

          •  Like I said (none / 0)

             can't even guess at the physics, but perhaps there's something other than wind drag involved?  For example, maybe the air/fuel ratio is better or something at 70 than 55, or maybe the 187,000 mi catalytic converter is doing weird things.  I really, don't know, but, UM, the fact that I need to fill up the tank less seems to give credence to the improved mileage my car claims to have since I've started experimenting.

            How much energy does the manufacture and transport of a new Prius use vs the extra gas I'm using at an average 27.4 MPG instead of 50ish that a Prius might provide (I live in the mountains and word has it that hybrids don't do as well here, so perhaps 45 is closer)?  This isn't snark, it's a serious question.

            What's the energy use break-even point if I cause the manufacture of a whole new car instead of using the car I already have more efficiently?  If I'm even going to consider shelling out mucho dinero for a new car, I need to know whether that switch is actually going to do what it's supposed to do.

    •  I think it could be done... (none / 0)

      Nearly 70% of petroleum is consumed by the transportation sector in the US.  With technology that exists right now, the average fuel efficiency could be increased by something approaching 100% by switching to lighter vehicle construction, smaller cars, much more emphasis on diesel and widespread use of hybrid technology.  If plug-in hybrids were to be widely adopted, the potential for a several-fold improvement exists.  However, a big shift to higher efficiencies would likely be offset by more driving unless fuel prices were kept high.  

      The intrinsic nature of Power is such that those who seek it most are least qualified to wield it.

      by mojo workin on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 10:01:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Switch from long haul trucks (none / 0)

        to trains. That would help a lot. Trains can run on diesel or other fuels (coal would be horrible, but possible), they're pretty flexible that way. Trains can haul a lot more than a truck. A LOT more. They can stop along the way and unload cars, pick them up on the way back.

        So if you were shipping to Philly from the midwest or west coast, you could have one train haul freight for anywhere along the route, and drop off/pick up along the way.

        That has to be better than one truck load at a time.

        Convert/retool as many trucks as possible to biodiesel. That would help too.

        The means we need to start constructing biodiesel plants now. NOW.

        •  Trains aren't quite so simple (none / 0)

          There are only so many miles of track extant, building more through places they are needed could be quite a problem and very expensive.  

          There is already a great deal of freight moving by rail, including intermodal shipments (trailers that stack on a set of wheels and then get pulled by a regular over the road semi) and the cost per mile is substantially lower than using a truck.  BUT it takes 1-3 days longer in transit and is subject to congestion at the relatively few unloading points.  It also is more susceptible to service disruptions (lots more roads than rails in the country) and can cause product damage (whole lot of shaking goin' on).

          I personally think that higher fuel costs may lead to a reversal of the mega-warehouse model.  More manufacturing sites in more places with smaller output equals less transit.  With diesel at $2.79/ gal it makes sense to ship things from China to Florida.  How about at $4?  $8?  $10?  At some point the financial benefits of mass production get eaten up by transit times and transportation costs.

          www.dailykos.com is America's Blog of Record

          by WI Deadhead on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 09:26:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  20% less imports by 2020 probably inevitable (none / 0)

      Re "The goal of a 20% reduction in imported oil strikes me as both impractical and politically un-smart", it is likely that the decline in production on the backside of Peak Oil will equal or exceed 20% by 2020 (15 years from now), whether or not this policy is implemented. So the Democratic Party can adopt this policy for free.

      I advocate using all available incentives and regulatory changes to boost and facilitate increased biodiesel and ethanol production ASAP. (And don't tell us about Pimentel -- he has been thoroughly discredited by multiple studies; biodiesel and ethanol, especially cellulosic ethanol, do pass the energy ratio test.)

    •  20% is actually too mild (none / 0)

      I think people who make comments like this do not understand 1) just how much oil the US uses compared to the rest of the world and 2) how much greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced in order to avoid catastrophic global warming.

      The United States produces almost double the greenhouse gas emissions of Western Europe, which has roughly 400 million people.  Granted, we are significantly less geographically compact, but it still seems more than reasonable to reduce our oil consumption by 20%, leaving us using only maybe 50% more per capita than our European friends.  Since 2/3 of the oil we use goes to cars, all we would have to do is increase the mileage of the average freeway vehicle by 50% (which can easily be done with existing technology) and we would fly past the 20% goal, without even reducing driving (which we should also do).

      In order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at about 20% more than current levels by 2100, we will need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050.  With other extremely populous countries like China and India experiencing strong economic growth, it is reasonable to assume that the United States will need to reduce its GHG emissions my more than 80% over the next half-century in order for the world to achieve the overall 80% reduction.

      Check this out.  It's a java applet that allows you to see interactively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models, what reductions in GHG emissions are necessary to achieve various stable atmospheric levels and temperature combinations.

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